@BOOK{NAP author = "National Research Council", editor = "John D. Steinbruner and Paul C. Stern and Jo L. Husbands", title = "Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis", isbn = "978-0-309-27856-0", abstract = "Climate change can reasonably be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of a variety of potentially disruptive environmental events\u2014slowly at first, but then more quickly. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by the way in which these events may cascade, or have far-reaching effects. During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications. Although focused on events outside the United States, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis recommends a range of research and policy actions to create a whole-of-government approach to increasing understanding of complex and contingent connections between climate and security, and to inform choices about adapting to and reducing vulnerability to climate change.", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/14682/climate-and-social-stress-implications-for-security-analysis", year = 2013, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Research Council", title = "Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises", isbn = "978-0-309-28773-9", abstract = "Climate is changing, forced out of the range of the past million years by levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not seen in the Earth's atmosphere for a very, very long time. Lacking action by the world's nations, it is clear that the planet will be warmer, sea level will rise, and patterns of rainfall will change. But the future is also partly uncertain\u2014there is considerable uncertainty about how we will arrive at that different climate. Will the changes be gradual, allowing natural systems and societal infrastructure to adjust in a timely fashion? Or will some of the changes be more abrupt, crossing some threshold or \"tipping point\" to change so fast that the time between when a problem is recognized and when action is required shrinks to the point where orderly adaptation is not possible?\nAbrupt Impacts of Climate Change is an updated look at the issue of abrupt climate change and its potential impacts. This study differs from previous treatments of abrupt changes by focusing on abrupt climate changes and also abrupt climate impacts that have the potential to severely affect the physical climate system, natural systems, or human systems, often affecting multiple interconnected areas of concern. The primary timescale of concern is years to decades. A key characteristic of these changes is that they can come faster than expected, planned, or budgeted for, forcing more reactive, rather than proactive, modes of behavior.\nAbrupt Impacts of Climate Change summarizes the state of our knowledge about potential abrupt changes and abrupt climate impacts and categorizes changes that are already occurring, have a high probability of occurrence, or are unlikely to occur. Because of the substantial risks to society and nature posed by abrupt changes, this report recommends the development of an Abrupt Change Early Warning System that would allow for the prediction and possible mitigation of such changes before their societal impacts are severe. Identifying key vulnerabilities can help guide efforts to increase resiliency and avoid large damages from abrupt change in the climate system, or in abrupt impacts of gradual changes in the climate system, and facilitate more informed decisions on the proper balance between mitigation and adaptation. Although there is still much to learn about abrupt climate change and abrupt climate impacts, to willfully ignore the threat of abrupt change could lead to more costs, loss of life, suffering, and environmental degradation. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change makes the case that the time is here to be serious about the threat of tipping points so as to better anticipate and prepare ourselves for the inevitable surprises.", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/18373/abrupt-impacts-of-climate-change-anticipating-surprises", year = 2013, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Research Council", title = "A Review of the Draft 2013 National Climate Assessment", isbn = "978-0-309-28472-1", abstract = "As mandated by the Global Change Research Act (GCRA), the U.S. Global Change Research Program is currently producing a \"National Climate Assessment\" (NCA). The NCA is a report to inform the President, the Congress, and the American people about the current state of scientific knowledge regarding climate change effects on U.S. regions and key sectors, now and in the coming decades. This document contains an evaluation of the draft NCA report, presented through consensus responses to the Panel's Task Statement questions, and through a large collection of individual Panel member comments and suggestions for specific chapters, statements, figures, etc. While focusing primarily on practical suggestions for immediately improving the current draft, the Panel also raises some broader considerations about fundamental approaches used in certain parts of the NCA report, and about the scope of USGCRP research that underlies the NCA findings. Some suggestions can be viewed as longer-term advice for future versions of NCA work.\nThis NCA has been a significantly more ambitious effort than previous assessments, in terms of the scope of topics addressed and the breadth of public engagement processes involved. Some of the important new areas include the use of \"traceable accounts,\" the articulation of needs for future research and a vision for an ongoing assessment process, the outreach efforts to help various stakeholders define their climate-related information needs, and the initial (though incomplete) effort to assess the current state of climate change response activities around the nation. Given the current state of the science and the scope of resources available, we believe the NCA did a reasonable job of fulfilling its charge overall. Although more needs to be done to fully meet the nation's needs for information and guidance, such needs cannot be met without an expanded research effort on the part of the USGCRP and future assessments.\nThe Panel suggests that the NCA report would be improved by addressing the numerous specific problems and concerns and the more cross-cutting issues raised in the consensus answers to the Task Statement questions\u2014which include, for instance, the need to:\n1. provide a clear overarching framework for the report that helps readers understand climate change as part of a complex system with interacting physical, biological, and human social\/economic dimensions, and offers practical guidance on using iterative risk management strategies to make decisions in the face of large uncertainties;\n2. clearly acknowledge how climate change affects and is affected by other types of major global environmental changes and other societal developments; \n3. offer an explicit discussion about the uncertainties associated with the regional model projections presented in the NCA draft; \n4. take full advantage of the e-book format planned for this document through strategic use of hyperlinks among different parts of the report and other innovative approaches that help guide the experience of the NCA's diverse audiences.\nAs the nation continues to engage with the threats, opportunities, and surprises of climate change in its many manifestations, the 2013 NCA should prove to be a valuable resource, as a summary of the state of knowledge about climate change and its implications for the American people.", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/18322/a-review-of-the-draft-2013-national-climate-assessment", year = 2013, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Research Council", title = "Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels", isbn = "978-0-309-26852-3", abstract = "\nFor a century, almost all light-duty vehicles (LDVs) have been powered by internal combustion engines operating on petroleum fuels. Energy security concerns about petroleum imports and the effect of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on global climate are driving interest in alternatives. Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels assesses the potential for reducing petroleum consumption and GHG emissions by 80 percent across the U.S. LDV fleet by 2050, relative to 2005.\nThis report examines the current capability and estimated future performance and costs for each vehicle type and non-petroleum-based fuel technology as options that could significantly contribute to these goals. By analyzing scenarios that combine various fuel and vehicle pathways, the report also identifies barriers to implementation of these technologies and suggests policies to achieve the desired reductions. Several scenarios are promising, but strong, and effective policies such as research and development, subsidies, energy taxes, or regulations will be necessary to overcome barriers, such as cost and consumer choice.\n", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/18264/transitions-to-alternative-vehicles-and-fuels", year = 2013, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Research Council", title = "Review of the Federal Ocean Acidification Research and Monitoring Plan", isbn = "978-0-309-30152-7", abstract = "The world's ocean has already experienced a 30% rise in acidity since the industrial revolution, with acidity expected to rise 100 to 150% over preindustrial levels by the end of this century. Potential consequences to marine life and also to economic activities that depend on a healthy marine ecosystem are difficult to assess and predict, but potentially devastating. To address this knowledge gap, Congress passed the Federal Ocean Acidification Research and Monitoring (FOARAM) Act in 2009, which, among other things, required that an interagency working group create a \"Strategic Plan for Federal Research and Monitoring of Ocean Acidification.\"\nReview of the Federal Ocean Acidification Research and Monitoring Plan reviews the strategic plan on the basis of how well it fulfills program elements laid out in the FOARAM Act and follows the advice provided to the working group in the NRC's 2010 report, Ocean Acidification: A National Strategy to Meet the Challenges of a Changing Ocean. This report concludes that, overall, the plan is strong and provides a comprehensive framework for improving our understanding of ocean acidification. Potential improvements include a better defined strategy for implementing program goals, stronger integration of the seven broad scientific themes laid out in the FOARAM Act, and better mechanisms for coordination among federal agencies and with other U.S. and international efforts to address ocean acidification.", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/17018/review-of-the-federal-ocean-acidification-research-and-monitoring-plan", year = 2013, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Research Council", title = "Energy-Efficiency Standards and Green Building Certification Systems Used by the Department of Defense for Military Construction and Major Renovations", isbn = "978-0-309-27038-0", abstract = "Congress has an ongoing interest in ensuring that the 500,000 buildings and other structures owned and operated by the Department of Defense (DOD) are operated effectively in terms of cost and resource use. Section 2830 of the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year requires the Secretary of Defense to submit a report to the congressional defense committees on the energy-efficiency and sustainability standards used by DOD for military construction and major renovations of buildings.\nDOD's report must include a cost-benefit analysis, return on investment, and long-term payback for the building standards and green building certification systems, including:\n(A) American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) Standard 189.1-2011 for the Design of High-Performance, Green Buildings Except Low-Rise Residential.\n(B) ASHRAE Energy Standard 90.1-2010 for Buildings Except Low-Rise Residential.\n(C) Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) Silver, Gold, and Platinum certification for green buildings, as well as the LEED Volume certification.\n(D) Other American National Standards Institute (ANSI) accredited standards.\n\nDOD's report to the congressional defense committees must also include a copy of DOD policy prescribing a comprehensive strategy for the pursuit of design and building standards across the department that include specific energy-efficiency standards and sustainable design attributes for military construction based on the cost-benefit analysis, return on investment, and demonstrated payback required for the aforementioned building standards and green building certification systems. Energy-Efficiency Standards and Green Building Certification Systems Used by the Department of Defense for Military Construction and Major Renovations summarizes the recommendations for energy efficiency.", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/18282/energy-efficiency-standards-and-green-building-certification-systems-used-by-the-department-of-defense-for-military-construction-and-major-renovations", year = 2013, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" }