%0 Book %A National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine %E Schwalbe, Michelle %T Statistical Challenges in Assessing and Fostering the Reproducibility of Scientific Results: Summary of a Workshop %@ 978-0-309-39202-0 %D 2016 %U https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/21915/statistical-challenges-in-assessing-and-fostering-the-reproducibility-of-scientific-results %> https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/21915/statistical-challenges-in-assessing-and-fostering-the-reproducibility-of-scientific-results %I The National Academies Press %C Washington, DC %G English %K Math, Chemistry, and Physics %K Surveys and Statistics %P 132 %X Questions about the reproducibility of scientific research have been raised in numerous settings and have gained visibility through several high-profile journal and popular press articles. Quantitative issues contributing to reproducibility challenges have been considered (including improper data measurement and analysis, inadequate statistical expertise, and incomplete data, among others), but there is no clear consensus on how best to approach or to minimize these problems. A lack of reproducibility of scientific results has created some distrust in scientific findings among the general public, scientists, funding agencies, and industries. While studies fail for a variety of reasons, many factors contribute to the lack of perfect reproducibility, including insufficient training in experimental design, misaligned incentives for publication and the implications for university tenure, intentional manipulation, poor data management and analysis, and inadequate instances of statistical inference. The workshop summarized in this report was designed not to address the social and experimental challenges but instead to focus on the latter issues of improper data management and analysis, inadequate statistical expertise, incomplete data, and difficulties applying sound statistic inference to the available data. Many efforts have emerged over recent years to draw attention to and improve reproducibility of scientific work. This report uniquely focuses on the statistical perspective of three issues: the extent of reproducibility, the causes of reproducibility failures, and the potential remedies for these failures. %0 Book %A National Research Council %T The Subjective Well-Being Module of the American Time Use Survey: Assessment for Its Continuation %@ 978-0-309-26664-2 %D 2012 %U https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/13535/the-subjective-well-being-module-of-the-american-time-use-survey %> https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/13535/the-subjective-well-being-module-of-the-american-time-use-survey %I The National Academies Press %C Washington, DC %G English %K Behavioral and Social Sciences %K Industry and Labor %K Surveys and Statistics %P 32 %X The American Time Use Survey (ATUS), conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, included a subjective well-being (SWB) module in 2010 and 2012. The module, funded by the National Institute on Aging (NIA), is being considered for inclusion in the ATUS for 2013. The National Research Council was asked to evaluate measures of self-reported well-being and offer guidance about their adoption in official government surveys. The charge for the study included an interim report to consider the usefulness of the ATUS SWB module, specifically the value of continuing it for at least one more wave. Among the key points raised in this report are the value, methodological benefits, and cost and effects on the ATUS and new opportunities. Research on subjective or self-reported well-being has been ongoing for several decades, with the past few years seeing an increased interest by some countries in using SWB measures to evaluate government policies and provide a broader assessment of the health of a society than is provided by such standard economic measures as gross domestic product. NIA asked the panel to prepare an interim report on the usefulness of the SWB module of the ATUS, with a view as to the utility of continuing the module in 2013. The Subjective Well-Being Module of the American Time Use Survey is intended to fulfill only one narrow aspect of the panel's broader task. It provides an overview of the ATUS and the SWB module, a brief discussion of research applications to date, and a preliminary assessment of the value of SWB module data. The panel's final report will address issues of whether research has advanced to the point that SWB measures-and which kinds of measures-should be regularly included in major surveys of official statistical agencies to help inform government economic and social policies. %0 Book %A National Research Council %E Stone, Arthur A. %E Mackie, Christopher %T Subjective Well-Being: Measuring Happiness, Suffering, and Other Dimensions of Experience %@ 978-0-309-29446-1 %D 2013 %U https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/18548/subjective-well-being-measuring-happiness-suffering-and-other-dimensions-of %> https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/18548/subjective-well-being-measuring-happiness-suffering-and-other-dimensions-of %I The National Academies Press %C Washington, DC %G English %K Behavioral and Social Sciences %K Surveys and Statistics %P 204 %X Subjective well-being refers to how people experience and evaluate their lives and specific domains and activities in their lives. This information has already proven valuable to researchers, who have produced insights about the emotional states and experiences of people belonging to different groups, engaged in different activities, at different points in the life course, and involved in different family and community structures. Research has also revealed relationships between people's self-reported, subjectively assessed states and their behavior and decisions. Research on subjective well-being has been ongoing for decades, providing new information about the human condition. During the past decade, interest in the topic among policy makers, national statistical offices, academic researchers, the media, and the public has increased markedly because of its potential for shedding light on the economic, social, and health conditions of populations and for informing policy decisions across these domains. Subjective Well-Being: Measuring Happiness, Suffering, and Other Dimensions of Experience explores the use of this measure in population surveys. This report reviews the current state of research and evaluates methods for the measurement. In this report, a range of potential experienced well-being data applications are cited, from cost-benefit studies of health care delivery to commuting and transportation planning, environmental valuation, and outdoor recreation resource monitoring, and even to assessment of end-of-life treatment options. Subjective Well-Being finds that, whether used to assess the consequence of people's situations and policies that might affect them or to explore determinants of outcomes, contextual and covariate data are needed alongside the subjective well-being measures. This report offers guidance about adopting subjective well-being measures in official government surveys to inform social and economic policies and considers whether research has advanced to a point which warrants the federal government collecting data that allow aspects of the population's subjective well-being to be tracked and associated with changing conditions. %0 Book %A National Research Council %E Goldberger, Arthur S. %E Rosenfeld, Richard %T Understanding Crime Trends: Workshop Report %@ 978-0-309-12586-4 %D 2008 %U https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/12472/understanding-crime-trends-workshop-report %> https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/12472/understanding-crime-trends-workshop-report %I The National Academies Press %C Washington, DC %G English %K Behavioral and Social Sciences %P 258 %X Changes over time in the levels and patterns of crime have significant consequences that affect not only the criminal justice system but also other critical policy sectors. Yet compared with such areas as health status, housing, and employment, the nation lacks timely information and comprehensive research on crime trends. Descriptive information and explanatory research on crime trends across the nation that are not only accurate, but also timely, are pressing needs in the nation's crime-control efforts. In April 2007, the National Research Council held a two-day workshop to address key substantive and methodological issues underlying the study of crime trends and to lay the groundwork for a proposed multiyear NRC panel study of these issues. Six papers were commissioned from leading researchers and discussed at the workshop by experts in sociology, criminology, law, economics, and statistics. The authors revised their papers based on the discussants' comments, and the papers were then reviewed again externally. The six final workshop papers are the basis of this volume, which represents some of the most serious thinking and research on crime trends currently available. %0 Book %A National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine %T The Growing Gap in Life Expectancy by Income: Implications for Federal Programs and Policy Responses %@ 978-0-309-31707-8 %D 2015 %U https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/19015/the-growing-gap-in-life-expectancy-by-income-implications-for %> https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/19015/the-growing-gap-in-life-expectancy-by-income-implications-for %I The National Academies Press %C Washington, DC %G English %K Behavioral and Social Sciences %K Industry and Labor %K Surveys and Statistics %P 182 %X The U.S. population is aging. Social Security projections suggest that between 2013 and 2050, the population aged 65 and over will almost double, from 45 million to 86 million. One key driver of population aging is ongoing increases in life expectancy. Average U.S. life expectancy was 67 years for males and 73 years for females five decades ago; the averages are now 76 and 81, respectively. It has long been the case that better-educated, higher-income people enjoy longer life expectancies than less-educated, lower-income people. The causes include early life conditions, behavioral factors (such as nutrition, exercise, and smoking behaviors), stress, and access to health care services, all of which can vary across education and income. Our major entitlement programs – Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and Supplemental Security Income – have come to deliver disproportionately larger lifetime benefits to higher-income people because, on average, they are increasingly collecting those benefits over more years than others. This report studies the impact the growing gap in life expectancy has on the present value of lifetime benefits that people with higher or lower earnings will receive from major entitlement programs. The analysis presented in The Growing Gap in Life Expectancy by Income goes beyond an examination of the existing literature by providing the first comprehensive estimates of how lifetime benefits are affected by the changing distribution of life expectancy. The report also explores, from a lifetime benefit perspective, how the growing gap in longevity affects traditional policy analyses of reforms to the nation’s leading entitlement programs. This in-depth analysis of the economic impacts of the longevity gap will inform debate and assist decision makers, economists, and researchers. %0 Book %A National Research Council %E Nagin, Daniel S. %E Pepper, John V. %T Deterrence and the Death Penalty %@ 978-0-309-25416-8 %D 2012 %U https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/13363/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty %> https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/13363/deterrence-and-the-death-penalty %I The National Academies Press %C Washington, DC %G English %K Behavioral and Social Sciences %P 144 %X Many studies during the past few decades have sought to determine whether the death penalty has any deterrent effect on homicide rates. Researchers have reached widely varying, even contradictory, conclusions. Some studies have concluded that the threat of capital punishment deters murders, saving large numbers of lives; other studies have concluded that executions actually increase homicides; still others, that executions have no effect on murder rates. Commentary among researchers, advocates, and policymakers on the scientific validity of the findings has sometimes been acrimonious. Against this backdrop, the National Research Council report Deterrence and the Death Penalty assesses whether the available evidence provides a scientific basis for answering questions of if and how the death penalty affects homicide rates. This new report from the Committee on Law and Justice concludes that research to date on the effect of capital punishment on homicide rates is not useful in determining whether the death penalty increases, decreases, or has no effect on these rates. The key question is whether capital punishment is less or more effective as a deterrent than alternative punishments, such as a life sentence without the possibility of parole. Yet none of the research that has been done accounted for the possible effect of noncapital punishments on homicide rates. The report recommends new avenues of research that may provide broader insight into any deterrent effects from both capital and noncapital punishments. %0 Book %A National Research Council %T Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies %@ 978-0-309-11660-2 %D 2010 %U https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/12557/persistent-forecasting-of-disruptive-technologies %> https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/12557/persistent-forecasting-of-disruptive-technologies %I The National Academies Press %C Washington, DC %G English %K Engineering and Technology %P 136 %X Technological innovations are key causal agents of surprise and disruption. In the recent past, the United States military has encountered unexpected challenges in the battlefield due in part to the adversary's incorporation of technologies not traditionally associated with weaponry. Recognizing the need to broaden the scope of current technology forecasting efforts, the Office of the Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact of the most dramatically disruptive technologies. The first of two reports, this volume analyzes existing forecasting methods and processes. It then outlines the necessary characteristics of a comprehensive forecasting system that integrates data from diverse sources to identify potentially game-changing technological innovations and facilitates informed decision making by policymakers. The committee's goal was to help the reader understand current forecasting methodologies, the nature of disruptive technologies and the characteristics of a persistent forecasting system for disruptive technology. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies is a useful text for the Department of Defense, Homeland Security, the Intelligence community and other defense agencies across the nation. %0 Book %A National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine %T Reproducibility and Replicability in Science %@ 978-0-309-48616-3 %D 2019 %U https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/25303/reproducibility-and-replicability-in-science %> https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/25303/reproducibility-and-replicability-in-science %I The National Academies Press %C Washington, DC %G English %K Surveys and Statistics %K Policy for Science and Technology %P 256 %X One of the pathways by which the scientific community confirms the validity of a new scientific discovery is by repeating the research that produced it. When a scientific effort fails to independently confirm the computations or results of a previous study, some fear that it may be a symptom of a lack of rigor in science, while others argue that such an observed inconsistency can be an important precursor to new discovery. Concerns about reproducibility and replicability have been expressed in both scientific and popular media. As these concerns came to light, Congress requested that the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine conduct a study to assess the extent of issues related to reproducibility and replicability and to offer recommendations for improving rigor and transparency in scientific research. Reproducibility and Replicability in Science defines reproducibility and replicability and examines the factors that may lead to non-reproducibility and non-replicability in research. Unlike the typical expectation of reproducibility between two computations, expectations about replicability are more nuanced, and in some cases a lack of replicability can aid the process of scientific discovery. This report provides recommendations to researchers, academic institutions, journals, and funders on steps they can take to improve reproducibility and replicability in science. %0 Book %A National Research Council %T Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence: Third Edition %@ 978-0-309-21421-6 %D 2011 %U https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/13163/reference-manual-on-scientific-evidence-third-edition %> https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/13163/reference-manual-on-scientific-evidence-third-edition %I The National Academies Press %C Washington, DC %G English %K Policy for Science and Technology %K Biology and Life Sciences %K Behavioral and Social Sciences %P 1034 %X The Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence, Third Edition, assists judges in managing cases involving complex scientific and technical evidence by describing the basic tenets of key scientific fields from which legal evidence is typically derived and by providing examples of cases in which that evidence has been used. First published in 1994 by the Federal Judicial Center, the Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence has been relied upon in the legal and academic communities and is often cited by various courts and others. Judges faced with disputes over the admissibility of scientific and technical evidence refer to the manual to help them better understand and evaluate the relevance, reliability and usefulness of the evidence being proffered. The manual is not intended to tell judges what is good science and what is not. Instead, it serves to help judges identify issues on which experts are likely to differ and to guide the inquiry of the court in seeking an informed resolution of the conflict. The core of the manual consists of a series of chapters (reference guides) on various scientific topics, each authored by an expert in that field. The topics have been chosen by an oversight committee because of their complexity and frequency in litigation. Each chapter is intended to provide a general overview of the topic in lay terms, identifying issues that will be useful to judges and others in the legal profession. They are written for a non-technical audience and are not intended as exhaustive presentations of the topic. Rather, the chapters seek to provide judges with the basic information in an area of science, to allow them to have an informed conversation with the experts and attorneys.