@BOOK{NAP title = "A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling", isbn = "978-0-309-25977-4", abstract = "As climate change has pushed climate patterns outside of historic norms, the need for detailed projections is growing across all sectors, including agriculture, insurance, and emergency preparedness planning. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling emphasizes the needs for climate models to evolve substantially in order to deliver climate projections at the scale and level of detail desired by decision makers, this report finds. Despite much recent progress in developing reliable climate models, there are still efficiencies to be gained across the large and diverse U.S. climate modeling community. Evolving to a more unified climate modeling enterprise-in particular by developing a common software infrastructure shared by all climate researchers and holding an annual climate modeling forum-could help speed progress.\nThroughout this report, several recommendations and guidelines are outlined to accelerate progress in climate modeling. The U.S. supports several climate models, each conceptually similar but with components assembled with slightly different software and data output standards. If all U.S. climate models employed a single software system, it could simplify testing and migration to new computing hardware, and allow scientists to compare and interchange climate model components, such as land surface or ocean models. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling recommends an annual U.S. climate modeling forum be held to help bring the nation's diverse modeling communities together with the users of climate data. This would provide climate model data users with an opportunity to learn more about the strengths and limitations of models and provide input to modelers on their needs and provide a venue for discussions of priorities for the national modeling enterprise, and bring disparate climate science communities together to design common modeling experiments.\nIn addition, A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling explains that U.S. climate modelers will need to address an expanding breadth of scientific problems while striving to make predictions and projections more accurate. Progress toward this goal can be made through a combination of increasing model resolution, advances in observations, improved model physics, and more complete representations of the Earth system. To address the computing needs of the climate modeling community, the report suggests a two-pronged approach that involves the continued use and upgrading of existing climate-dedicated computing resources at modeling centers, together with research on how to effectively exploit the more complex computer hardware systems expected over the next 10 to 20 years.", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/13430/a-national-strategy-for-advancing-climate-modeling", year = 2012, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Research Council", title = "Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling", isbn = "978-0-309-07257-1", abstract = "Information derived from climate modeling has become increasingly important in recent years. More and more we understand that climate variability and change impacts society and that dealing with climate-related disasters, conflicts, and opportunities requires the best possible information about the past, present, and future of the climate system. To this end, Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling describes ways to improve the efficacy of the U.S. climate modeling enterprise, given the current needs and resources. It discusses enhanced and stable resources for modeling activities, focused and centralized operational activities, how to give researchers access to the best computing facilities, the creation of a common modeling and data infrastructure, and research studies on the socioeconomic aspects of climate and climate modeling.", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/10087/improving-the-effectiveness-of-us-climate-modeling", year = 2001, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine", editor = "Anne F. Johnson and Andrew Bremer and Julie Liao and Audrey Thévenon", title = "Pivotal Interfaces of Environmental Health and Infectious Disease Research to Inform Responses to Outbreaks, Epidemics, and Pandemics: Proceedings of a Workshop–in Brief", abstract = "Pathogens are the cause of infectious diseases, but the environment can play an important role in influencing the conditions under which pathogens spread and cause harm. Understanding the complex interplay among people, pathogens, and the environment - broadly encompassing the chemical, biological, physical, and social surroundings - can lead to a more complete picture of where and how infectious diseases emerge, how they spread, and how to respond to outbreaks.\nThe virtual workshop Pivotal Interfaces of Environmental Health and Infectious Disease Research to Inform Responses to Outbreaks, Epidemics, and Pandemics was held on June 8-9, 2021. This workshop provided a venue for experts in infectious diseases, environmental health, and data science from government, academia, and the private sector to examine current knowledge about the environment-infectious disease interface and to explore how this knowledge can be used to inform public health decisions. Key workshop topics included how advances in environmental exposure assessments can be applied to identify, predict, and monitor critical infectious disease exposure pathways, and how climate and environmental modeling techniques can be applied to better understand the biology and transmission dynamics of pathogens and provide early warning of emerging threats. In addition, workshop sessions explored critical data gaps at the environment-infectious disease interface and provided insight on how new and emerging techniques can be applied to address those data gaps, especially through the integration of tools used in environmental health and infectious disease research. This publication summarizes the presentation and discussion of the workshop.", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/26270/pivotal-interfaces-of-environmental-health-and-infectious-disease-research-to-inform-responses-to-outbreaks-epidemics-and-pandemics", year = 2021, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine", editor = "Katie Thomas", title = "Opportunities to Improve Representation of Clouds and Aerosols in Climate Models with Classified Observing Systems: Proceedings of a Workshop: Abbreviated Version", isbn = "978-0-309-44345-6", abstract = "One of the most significant and uncertain aspects of climate change projections is the impact of aerosols on the climate system. Aerosols influence the climate indirectly by interacting with nearby clouds leading to small changes in cloud cover, thickness, and altitude, which significantly affect Earth\u2019s radiative balance. Advancements have been made in recent years on understanding the complex processes and atmospheric interactions involved when aerosols interact with surrounding clouds, but further progress has been hindered by limited observations. \n\nThe National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine organized a workshop to discuss the usefulness of the classified observing systems in advancing understanding of cloud and aerosol interactions. Because these systems were not developed with weather and climate modeling as a primary mission objective, many participants said it is necessary for scientists to find creative ways to utilize the data. The data from these systems have the potential to be useful in advancing understanding of cloud and aerosol interactions. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/23527/opportunities-to-improve-representation-of-clouds-and-aerosols-in-climate-models-with-classified-observing-systems", year = 2016, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Research Council", editor = "K. John Holmes", title = "Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: Summary of a Workshop", isbn = "978-0-309-16235-7", abstract = "Models are fundamental for estimating the possible costs and effectiveness of different policies for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. There is a wide array of models to perform such analysis, differing in the level of technological detail, treatment of technological progress, spatial and sector details, and representation of the interaction of the energy sector to the overall economy and environment. These differences impact model results, including cost estimates. More fundamentally, these models differ as to how they represent fundamental processes that have a large impact on policy analysis--such as how different models represent technological learning and cost reductions that come through increasing production volumes, or how different models represent baseline conditions. \nReliable estimates of the costs and potential impacts on the United States economy of various emissions reduction and other mitigation strategies are critical to the development of the federal climate change research and development portfolio. At the request of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the National Academies organized a workshop, summarized in this volume, to consider some of these types of modeling issues.", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/13023/modeling-the-economics-of-greenhouse-gas-mitigation-summary-of-a", year = 2011, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine", title = "Assessment of Approaches to Updating the Social Cost of Carbon: Phase 1 Report on a Near-Term Update", isbn = "978-0-309-39145-0", abstract = "The social cost of carbon (SCC) for a given year is an estimate, in dollars, of the present discounted value of the damage caused by a 1-metric ton increase in CO2 emissions into the atmosphere in that year; or equivalently, the benefits of reducing CO2 emissions by the same amount in that given year. The SCC is intended to provide a comprehensive measure of the monetized value of the net damages from global climate change from an additional unit of CO2, including, but not limited to, changes in net agricultural productivity, energy use, human health effects, and property damages from increased flood risk. Federal agencies use the SCC to value the CO2 emissions impacts of various policies including emission and fuel economy standards for vehicles, regulations of industrial air pollutants from industrial manufacturing, emission standards for power plants and solid waste incineration, and appliance energy efficiency standards. \n\nThere are significant challenges to estimating a dollar value that reflects all the physical, human, ecological, and economic impacts of climate change. Recognizing that the models and scientific data underlying the SCC estimates evolve and improve over time, the federal government made a commitment to provide regular updates to the estimates. To assist with future revisions of the SCC, the Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Carbon (IWG) requested the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine complete a study that assessed the merits and challenges of a limited near-term update to the SCC and of a comprehensive update of the SCC to ensure that the estimates reflect the best available science. This interim report focuses on near-term updates to the SCC estimates. \n", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/21898/assessment-of-approaches-to-updating-the-social-cost-of-carbon", year = 2016, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Research Council", title = "Understanding Climate's Influence on Human Evolution", isbn = "978-0-309-14838-2", abstract = "The hominin fossil record documents a history of critical evolutionary events that have ultimately shaped and defined what it means to be human, including the origins of bipedalism; the emergence of our genus Homo; the first use of stone tools; increases in brain size; and the emergence of Homo sapiens, tools, and culture. The Earth's geological record suggests that some evolutionary events were coincident with substantial changes in African and Eurasian climate, raising the possibility that critical junctures in human evolution and behavioral development may have been affected by the environmental characteristics of the areas where hominins evolved. Understanding Climate's Change on Human Evolution explores the opportunities of using scientific research to improve our understanding of how climate may have helped shape our species.\n\nImproved climate records for specific regions will be required before it is possible to evaluate how critical resources for hominins, especially water and vegetation, would have been distributed on the landscape during key intervals of hominin history. Existing records contain substantial temporal gaps. The book's initiatives are presented in two major research themes: first, determining the impacts of climate change and climate variability on human evolution and dispersal; and second, integrating climate modeling, environmental records, and biotic responses.\n\nUnderstanding Climate's Change on Human Evolution suggests a new scientific program for international climate and human evolution studies that involve an exploration initiative to locate new fossil sites and to broaden the geographic and temporal sampling of the fossil and archeological record; a comprehensive and integrative scientific drilling program in lakes, lake bed outcrops, and ocean basins surrounding the regions where hominins evolved and a major investment in climate modeling experiments for key time intervals and regions that are critical to understanding human evolution.\n ", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/12825/understanding-climates-influence-on-human-evolution", year = 2010, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Research Council", title = "Understanding Climate Change Feedbacks", isbn = "978-0-309-09072-8", abstract = "During the past decade, scientists have learned much about the complex natural\nprocesses that influence climate variability and change, and our ability to model\nclimate has increased significantly. We also have begun to better identify those parts\nof the climate system that are particularly important and not well understood and\nthat therefore limit our ability to project the future evolution of Earth\u2019s climate. One\nof these critical areas is our understanding of the role of feedbacks in the climate system\nand their role in determining climate sensitivity. Feedbacks are processes in the\nclimate system that can either amplify or dampen the system\u2019s response to changed\nforcings. This study looks at what is known and not known about climate change\nfeedbacks and seeks to identify the feedback processes most in need of improved\nunderstanding. It identifies key observations needed to monitor and understand climate\nfeedbacks, discusses ways to evaluate progress in understanding climate feedbacks,\nrecommends ways to improve climate modeling and analysis for climate feedbacks\nresearch, and identifies priority areas for research.", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/10850/understanding-climate-change-feedbacks", year = 2003, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Research Council", title = "Improving the Scientific Foundation for Atmosphere-Land-Ocean Simulations: Report of a Workshop", isbn = "978-0-309-09609-6", abstract = "The National Academies' Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) held a workshop to explore and evaluate current efforts to model physical processes of coupled atmosphere-land-ocean (A-L-O) models. Numerical models of the atmosphere and ocean are central to weather prediction, research, and education. Although great strides have been made over the past few decades in understanding the atmosphere and ocean, modeling capabilities, and numerical A-L-O simulations, some unresolved processes in the models do not adequately represent knowledge of the underlying physics. Moreover, there is evidence that further progress in numerical simulations is being impeded by the slow pace of improvement in the representation of key physical processes in the models and the fact that geophysical flow models are not receiving the attention needed to make these tools more useful and accurate. These models often are used to predict future events, so it is imperative that their underlying physical processes be represented as robustly as possible. During the workshop, the parameterization of physical processes in A-L-O models was addressed, including associated errors, testing, and efforts to improve the use of parameterizations. Participants also examined intellectual and scientific challenges in modeling and highlighted the idea that some of the key impediments to progress in representing physical processes are primarily cultural in nature.", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/11266/improving-the-scientific-foundation-for-atmosphere-land-ocean-simulations-report", year = 2005, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Research Council", editor = "Kellyn Betts and Keegan Sawyer", title = "Modeling the Health Risks of Climate Change: Workshop Summary", isbn = "978-0-309-37098-1", abstract = "Climate change poses risks to human health and well-being through shifting weather patterns, increases in frequency and intensity of heat waves and other extreme weather events, rising sea levels, ocean acidification, and other environmental effects. Those risks occur against a backdrop of changing socioeconomic conditions, medical technology, population demographics, environmental conditions, and other factors that are important in determining health. Models of health risks that reflect how health determinants and climate changes vary in time and space are needed so that we can inform adaptation efforts and reduce or prevent adverse health effects. Robust health risk models could also help to inform national and international discussions about climate policies and the economic consequences of action and inaction.\nInterest in resolving some of the challenges facing health effects modelers and health scientists led the National Research Council's Standing Committee on Emerging Science for Environmental Health Decisions to hold a workshop on November 3-4, 2014, in Washington, DC, to explore new approaches to modeling the human health risks of climate change. Throughout the workshop, the discussions highlighted examples of current application of models, research gaps, lessons learned, and potential next steps to improve modeling of health risks associated with climate change. Modeling the Health Risks of Climate Change summarizes the presentation and discussion of the workshop.", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/21705/modeling-the-health-risks-of-climate-change-workshop-summary", year = 2015, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Research Council", title = "Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises", isbn = "978-0-309-07434-6", abstract = "The climate record for the past 100,000 years clearly indicates that the climate system has undergone periodic\u2014and often extreme\u2014shifts, sometimes in as little as a decade or less. The causes of abrupt climate changes have not been clearly established, but the triggering of events is likely to be the result of multiple natural processes.\n\nAbrupt climate changes of the magnitude seen in the past would have far-reaching implications for human society and ecosystems, including major impacts on energy consumption and water supply demands. Could such a change happen again? Are human activities exacerbating the likelihood of abrupt climate change? What are the potential societal consequences of such a change? \n\nAbrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises looks at the current scientific evidence and theoretical understanding to describe what is currently known about abrupt climate change, including patterns and magnitudes, mechanisms, and probability of occurrence. It identifies critical knowledge gaps concerning the potential for future abrupt changes, including those aspects of change most important to society and economies, and outlines a research strategy to close those gaps. \n\nBased on the best and most current research available, this book surveys the history of climate change and makes a series of specific recommendations for the future.", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/10136/abrupt-climate-change-inevitable-surprises", year = 2002, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Research Council", title = "Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling to Support Climate Change Assessment Activities", isbn = "978-0-309-06375-3", abstract = "The U.S. government has pending before it the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, an agreement to limit the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which is largely based on the threat GHGs pose to the global climate. Such an agreement would have significant economic and national security implications, and therefore any national policy decisions regarding this issue should rely in part on the best possible suite of scenarios from climate models.\nThe U.S. climate modeling research community is a world leader in intermediate and smaller climate modeling efforts-research that has been instrumental in improving the understanding of specific components of the climate system. Somewhat in contrast, the United States has been less prominent in producing high-end climate modeling results, which have been featured in recent international assessments of the impacts of climate change. The fact that U.S. contributions of these state-of-the-art results have been relatively sparse has prompted a number of prominent climate researchers to question the current organization and support of climate modeling research in the United States, and has led ultimately to this report.", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/6365/capacity-of-us-climate-modeling-to-support-climate-change-assessment-activities", year = 1998, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine", editor = "Alex Martin", title = "Deployment of Deep Decarbonization Technologies: Proceedings of a Workshop", isbn = "978-0-309-67063-0", abstract = "While progress has been made in the development of decarbonization technologies, much work remains in scale-up and deployment. For decarbonization technologies to reach meaningful scale, real-world constraints, societal, economic, and political, must be considered.\nTo identify the primary challenges and opportunities to deploying decarbonization technologies at scale across major sectors of the U.S. economy, the Board on Energy and Environmental Systems of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop on July 22-23, 2019. In addition to technology-specific and sector-specific studies, the workshop considered the types of societal transformations required, as well as potential policy drivers for carbon dioxide emissions reductions. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussion of the workshop.", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/25656/deployment-of-deep-decarbonization-technologies-proceedings-of-a-workshop", year = 2019, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Research Council", title = "Global Air Quality: An Imperative for Long-Term Observational Strategies", isbn = "978-0-309-07414-8", abstract = "The National Research Council's Committee on Atmospheric Chemistry (NRC\/CAC) was established to serve as a focal point for NRC activities on issues related to atmospheric chemical change and its impacts on air quality, climate, stratospheric ozone depletion, and other related issues. The committee consists of 12 members with expertise covering the areas of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry; urban\/regional air pollution; modeling of climate, chemistry, and atmospheric dynamics; in situ and remote sensing observational systems; and interfaces of science and public policy.This CAC study was motivated by a concern that, in the coming decades, dramatic increases in global population and urbanization levels, as well as changes in global climate, may significantly affect air quality over large regions of the globe. The charge to the committee was to examine the linkages among regional\/ global changes in atmospheric composition, climate change, and air quality.", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/10097/global-air-quality-an-imperative-for-long-term-observational-strategies", year = 2001, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP title = "", url = "", year = , publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Research Council", editor = "William D. Nordhaus and Stephen A. Merrill and Paul T. Beaton", title = "Effects of U.S. Tax Policy on Greenhouse Gas Emissions", isbn = "978-0-309-28269-7", abstract = "The U.S. Congress charged the National Academies with conducting a review of the Internal Revenue Code to identify the types of and specific tax provisions that have the largest effects on carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions and to estimate the magnitude of those effects. To address such a broad charge, the National Academies appointed a committee composed of experts in tax policy, energy and environmental modeling, economics, environmental law, climate science, and related areas.\n \nFor scientific background to produce Effects of U.S. Tax Policy on Greenhouse Gas Emissions, the committee relied on the earlier findings and studies by the National Academies, the U.S. government, and other research organizations. The committee has relied on earlier reports and studies to set the boundaries of the economic, environmental, and regulatory assumptions for the present study. The major economic and environmental assumptions are those developed by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its annual reports and modeling. Additionally, the committee has relied upon publicly available data provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, which inventories greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from different sources in the United States. \n \nThe tax system affects emissions primarily through changes in the prices of inputs and outputs or goods and services. Most of the tax provisions considered in this report relate directly to the production or consumption of different energy sources. However, there is a substantial set of tax expenditures called \"broad-based\" that favor certain categories of consumption\u2014among them, employer-provided health care, owner-occupied housing, and purchase of new plants and equipment. Effects of U.S. Tax Policy on Greenhouse Gas Emissions examines both tax expenditures and excise taxes that could have a significant impact on GHG emissions. ", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/18299/effects-of-us-tax-policy-on-greenhouse-gas-emissions", year = 2013, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Research Council", title = "Review of NOAA's Plan for the Scientific Data Stewardship Program", isbn = "978-0-309-09703-1", abstract = "To better understand our climate system, it is important that we have climate data records (CDRs)--time series of measurements of sufficient length, consistency, and continuity to determine climate variability and change--that possess the accuracy, longevity, and stability to facilitate credible climate monitoring. In 2004, the National Research Council (NRC) published Climate Data Records from Environmental Satellites to provide the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) with initial guidelines on how to develop and implement an effective CDR program. NOAA used this book to draft a plan for a new Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) program, and then asked NRC to review it. The new program will be responsible for processing, archiving, and distributing observations from satellite and supporting ground-based platforms for monitoring, diagnosing, understanding, predicting, modeling, and assessing climate variation and change. The NRC review outlines several ways in which to improve NOAA's draft plan, most importantly by clarifying advisory mechanisms, providing more detail about how NOAA will coordinate with important partners in generating CDRs, articulating how the program will prioritize its activities, and developing ways to realistically project future costs. However, the draft plan is sound overall and NOAA should immediately begin implementing the SDS program while revising the plan as recommended in the book.\n", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/11421/review-of-noaas-plan-for-the-scientific-data-stewardship-program", year = 2005, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Research Council", title = "Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/12181/carbon-dioxide-and-climate-a-scientific-assessment", year = 1979, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP title = "Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/19856/carbon-dioxide-and-climate-a-scientific-assessment", year = 1979, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP title = "Ocean Models for Climate Research: A Workshop", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/19793/ocean-models-for-climate-research-a-workshop", year = 1980, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" }