@BOOK{NAP author = "National Research Council", title = "Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future", isbn = "978-0-309-25594-3", abstract = "Tide gauges show that global sea level has risen about 7 inches during the 20th century, and recent satellite data show that the rate of sea-level rise is accelerating. As Earth warms, sea levels are rising mainly because ocean water expands as it warms; and water from melting glaciers and ice sheets is flowing into the ocean. Sea-level rise poses enormous risks to the valuable infrastructure, development, and wetlands that line much of the 1,600 mile shoreline of California, Oregon, and Washington. As those states seek to incorporate projections of sea-level rise into coastal planning, they asked the National Research Council to make independent projections of sea-level rise along their coasts for the years 2030, 2050, and 2100, taking into account regional factors that affect sea level.\n\nSea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future explains that sea level along the U.S. west coast is affected by a number of factors. These include: climate patterns such as the El Nino, effects from the melting of modern and ancient ice sheets, and geologic processes, such as plate tectonics. Regional projections for California, Oregon, and Washington show a sharp distinction at Cape Mendocino in northern California. South of that point, sea-level rise is expected to be very close to global projections. However, projections are lower north of Cape Mendocino because the land is being pushed upward as the ocean plate moves under the continental plate along the Cascadia Subduction Zone. However, an earthquake magnitude 8 or larger, which occurs in the region every few hundred to 1,000 years, would cause the land to drop and sea level to suddenly rise.", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/13389/sea-level-rise-for-the-coasts-of-california-oregon-and-washington", year = 2012, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Research Council", title = "Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises", isbn = "978-0-309-28773-9", abstract = "Climate is changing, forced out of the range of the past million years by levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not seen in the Earth's atmosphere for a very, very long time. Lacking action by the world's nations, it is clear that the planet will be warmer, sea level will rise, and patterns of rainfall will change. But the future is also partly uncertain\u2014there is considerable uncertainty about how we will arrive at that different climate. Will the changes be gradual, allowing natural systems and societal infrastructure to adjust in a timely fashion? Or will some of the changes be more abrupt, crossing some threshold or \"tipping point\" to change so fast that the time between when a problem is recognized and when action is required shrinks to the point where orderly adaptation is not possible?\nAbrupt Impacts of Climate Change is an updated look at the issue of abrupt climate change and its potential impacts. This study differs from previous treatments of abrupt changes by focusing on abrupt climate changes and also abrupt climate impacts that have the potential to severely affect the physical climate system, natural systems, or human systems, often affecting multiple interconnected areas of concern. The primary timescale of concern is years to decades. A key characteristic of these changes is that they can come faster than expected, planned, or budgeted for, forcing more reactive, rather than proactive, modes of behavior.\nAbrupt Impacts of Climate Change summarizes the state of our knowledge about potential abrupt changes and abrupt climate impacts and categorizes changes that are already occurring, have a high probability of occurrence, or are unlikely to occur. Because of the substantial risks to society and nature posed by abrupt changes, this report recommends the development of an Abrupt Change Early Warning System that would allow for the prediction and possible mitigation of such changes before their societal impacts are severe. Identifying key vulnerabilities can help guide efforts to increase resiliency and avoid large damages from abrupt change in the climate system, or in abrupt impacts of gradual changes in the climate system, and facilitate more informed decisions on the proper balance between mitigation and adaptation. Although there is still much to learn about abrupt climate change and abrupt climate impacts, to willfully ignore the threat of abrupt change could lead to more costs, loss of life, suffering, and environmental degradation. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change makes the case that the time is here to be serious about the threat of tipping points so as to better anticipate and prepare ourselves for the inevitable surprises.", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/18373/abrupt-impacts-of-climate-change-anticipating-surprises", year = 2013, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Research Council", title = "Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change", isbn = "978-0-309-14591-6", abstract = "Across the United States, impacts of climate change are already evident. Heat waves have become more frequent and intense, cold extremes have become less frequent, and patterns of rainfall are likely changing. The proportion of precipitation that falls as rain rather than snow has increased across the western United States and Arctic sea ice has been reduced significantly. Sea level has been rising faster than at any time in recent history, threatening the natural and built environments on the coasts. Even if emissions of greenhouse gases were substantially reduced now, climate change and its resulting impacts would continue for some time to come.\nTo date, decisions related to the management and protection of the nation's people, resources, and infrastructure have been based on records in the recent past, when climate was relatively stable. Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change, part of the congressionally requested America's Climate Choices suite of studies, calls for a new paradigm-one that considers a range of possible future climate conditions and impacts that may be well outside the realm of past experience.\nAdaptation requires actions from many decision makers in federal, state, tribal, and local governments; the private sector; non-governmental organizations; and community groups. However, current efforts are hampered by a lack of solid information about the benefits, costs, and effectiveness of various adaptation options; climate information on regional and local scales; and a lack of coordination. Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change calls for a national adaptation strategy that provides needed technical and scientific resources, incentives to begin adaptation planning, guidance across jurisdictions, shared lessons learned, and support of scientific research to expand knowledge of impacts and adaptation. \n ", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/12783/adapting-to-the-impacts-of-climate-change", year = 2010, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine", title = "A Decision Framework for Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs", isbn = "978-0-309-49184-6", abstract = "Coral reefs are critical to ocean and human life because they provide food, living area, storm protection, tourism income, and more. However, human-induced stressors, such as overfishing, sediment, pollution, and habitat destruction have threatened ocean ecosystems globally for decades. In the face of climate change, these ecosystems now face an array of unfamiliar challenges due to destructive rises in ocean temperature, acidity and sea level. These factors lead to an increased frequency of bleaching events, hindered growth, and a decreasing rate of calcification. Research on interventions to combat these relatively new stressors and a reevaluation of longstanding interventions is necessary to understand and protect coral reefs in this changing climate. Previous research on these methods prompts further questions regarding the decision making process for site-specific interventions.\n \nA Decision Framework for Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs builds upon a previous report that reviews the state of research on methods that have been used, tested, or proposed to increase the resilience of coral reefs. This new report aims to help coral managers evaluate the specific needs of their site and navigate the 23 different interventions described in the previous report. A case study of the Caribbean, a region with low coral population plagued by disease, serves as an example for coral intervention decision making. This report provides complex coral management decision making tools, identifies gaps in coral biology and conservation research, and provides examples to help individuals and communities tailor a decision strategy to a local area.", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/25424/a-decision-framework-for-interventions-to-increase-the-persistence-and-resilience-of-coral-reefs", year = 2019, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine", title = "A Research Review of Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs", isbn = "978-0-309-48535-7", abstract = "Coral reef declines have been recorded for all major tropical ocean basins since the 1980s, averaging approximately 30-50% reductions in reef cover globally. These losses are a result of numerous problems, including habitat destruction, pollution, overfishing, disease, and climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions and the associated increases in ocean temperature and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations have been implicated in increased reports of coral bleaching, disease outbreaks, and ocean acidification (OA). For the hundreds of millions of people who depend on reefs for food or livelihoods, the thousands of communities that depend on reefs for wave protection, the people whose cultural practices are tied to reef resources, and the many economies that depend on reefs for fisheries or tourism, the health and maintenance of this major global ecosystem is crucial.\n\nA growing body of research on coral physiology, ecology, molecular biology, and responses to stress has revealed potential tools to increase coral resilience. Some of this knowledge is poised to provide practical interventions in the short-term, whereas other discoveries are poised to facilitate research that may later open the doors to additional interventions. A Research Review of Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs reviews the state of science on genetic, ecological, and environmental interventions meant to enhance the persistence and resilience of coral reefs. The complex nature of corals and their associated microbiome lends itself to a wide range of possible approaches. This first report provides a summary of currently available information on the range of interventions present in the scientific literature and provides a basis for the forthcoming final report.", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/25279/a-research-review-of-interventions-to-increase-the-persistence-and-resilience-of-coral-reefs", year = 2019, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine", title = "Understanding the Long-Term Evolution of the Coupled Natural-Human Coastal System: The Future of the U.S. Gulf Coast", isbn = "978-0-309-47584-6", abstract = "The U.S. Gulf Coast provides a valuable setting to study deeply connected natural and human interactions and feedbacks that have led to a complex, interconnected coastal system. The physical landscape in the region has changed significantly due to broad-scale, long-term processes such as coastal subsidence and river sediment deposition as well as short-term episodic events such as hurricanes. Modifications from human activities, including building levees and canals and constructing buildings and roads, have left their own imprint on the natural landscape. This coupled natural-human coastal system and the individual aspects within it (physical, ecological, and human) are under increased pressure from accelerating environmental stressors such as sea level rise, intensifying hurricanes, and continued population increase with its accompanying coastal development. Promoting the resilience and maintaining the habitability of the Gulf Coast into the future will need improved understanding of the coupled natural-human coastal system, as well as effective sharing of this understanding in support of decision-making and policies.\n\nUnderstanding the Long-term Evolution of the Coupled Natural-Human Coastal System presents a research agenda meant to enable a better understanding of the multiple and interconnected factors that influence long-term processes along the Gulf Coast. This report identifies scientific and technical gaps in understanding the interactions and feedbacks between human and natural processes, defines essential components of a research and development program in response to the identified gaps, and develops priorities for critical areas of research.", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/25108/understanding-the-long-term-evolution-of-the-coupled-natural-human-coastal-system", year = 2018, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine", title = "Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031", isbn = "978-0-309-26134-0", abstract = "The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is a collection of 13 Federal entities charged by law to assist the United States and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031 advises the USGCRP on how best to meet its mandate in light of climate change impacts happening today and projected into the future. This report identifies critical climate change risks, research needed to support decision-making relevant to managing these risks, and opportunities for the USGCRP's participating agencies and other partners to advance these research priorities over the next decade.", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/26055/global-change-research-needs-and-opportunities-for-2022-2031", year = 2021, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine", editor = "Alexandra Beatty", title = "Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments: Proceedings of a Workshop", isbn = "978-0-309-44551-1", abstract = "The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) was established in 1990 to \"assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.\"1 A key responsibility for the program is to conduct National Climate Assessments (NCAs) every 4 years.2 These assessments are intended to inform the nation about \"observed changes in climate, the current status of the climate, and anticipated trends for the future.\" The USGCRP hopes that government entities from federal agencies to small municipalities, citizens, communities, and businesses will rely on these assessments of climate- related risks for planning and decision-making. The third NCA (NCA3) was published in 2014 and work on the fourth is beginning. \n\nThe USGCRP asked the Board on Environmental Change and Society of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to conduct a workshop to explore ways to frame the NCA4 and subsequent NCA reports in terms of risks to society. The workshop was intended to collect experienced views on how to characterize and communicate information about climate-related hazards, risks, and opportunities that will support decision makers in their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, reduce vulnerability to likely changes in climate, and increase resilience to those changes. Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/23569/characterizing-risk-in-climate-change-assessments-proceedings-of-a-workshop", year = 2016, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine", editor = "Jordyn White and Laurie Geller", title = "Advancing Sustainability of U.S.-Mexico Transboundary Drylands: Proceedings of a Workshop", isbn = "978-0-309-48424-4", abstract = "The drylands region shared by the United States and Mexico currently faces multiple sustainability challenges at the intersection of the human and natural systems. Warming and drying conditions threaten surface water and groundwater availability, disrupt land- and marine-based livelihood systems, and challenge the sustainability of human settlements. These biophysical challenges are exacerbated by a highly mobile and dynamic population, volatile economic and policy conditions, increased exposure to extreme events, and urbanization on marginal, vulnerable lands.\nThe U.S. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine collaborated with the Mexican Academy of Sciences, Academy of Engineering, and the National Academy of Medicine to plan a 2-day binational workshop, Advancing Sustainability of U.S.-Mexico Transboundary Drylands. The workshop goals were to highlight the challenges facing the region, assess the scientific and technical capacity that each nation can bring to bear in addressing these challenges, and identify new opportunities for binational research collaboration and coordinated management approaches in the advancement of sustainability science and development. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/25253/advancing-sustainability-of-us-mexico-transboundary-drylands-proceedings-of-a", year = 2018, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" } @BOOK{NAP author = "National Academy of Engineering and National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine", title = "Environmental Engineering for the 21st Century: Addressing Grand Challenges", isbn = "978-0-309-47655-3", abstract = "Environmental engineers support the well-being of people and the planet in areas where the two intersect. Over the decades the field has improved countless lives through innovative systems for delivering water, treating waste, and preventing and remediating pollution in air, water, and soil. These achievements are a testament to the multidisciplinary, pragmatic, systems-oriented approach that characterizes environmental engineering.\nEnvironmental Engineering for the 21st Century: Addressing Grand Challenges outlines the crucial role for environmental engineers in this period of dramatic growth and change. The report identifies five pressing challenges of the 21st century that environmental engineers are uniquely poised to help advance: sustainably supply food, water, and energy; curb climate change and adapt to its impacts; design a future without pollution and waste; create efficient, healthy, resilient cities; and foster informed decisions and actions.", url = "https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/25121/environmental-engineering-for-the-21st-century-addressing-grand-challenges", year = 2019, publisher = "The National Academies Press", address = "Washington, DC" }